Greece is gearing up for election re-run on Sunday, with recent opinion polls suggesting a potential return to power for the center-right New Democracy (ND) party, led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and the likelihood of a significant parliamentary majority. The electoral law grants the winning party up to 50 bonus seats, which could further strengthen Mitsotakis’ position.

In the previous May 21 vote, ND secured a 20-point lead over the main opposition SYRIZA party, a margin unseen in Greece since the 1970s. However, they fell short of the majority required to govern alone due to the proportional voting system. This time, the election will be held under a different system that could result in Mitsotakis gaining a larger share of seats if he replicates or surpasses his performance from May.

Opinion polls indicate that ND is likely to secure a comfortable majority in the new Parliament, exceeding the 151 seats required for autonomous governance. Voting centers throughout the country opened at 7 a.m. and will close at 7 p.m., with the announcement of the exit poll. The first results are expected to be revealed shortly after, providing a clear picture of the election as early as 9 p.m.

While Mitsotakis appears to be on the verge of a landslide victory, he has cautioned against complacency. During his final pre-election interview with SKAI TV on Friday, he said: “In no way do I consider that the result of the ballot box is a given.” He appealed “for everyone to exercise their right to vote again” while emphasizing that the outcome of the previous election does not count. If ND is unable to govern alone, a third election during the peak holiday season in August could be a possibility.

The tragic migrant trawler shipwreck on June 14, which claimed numerous lives, hangs over the election but is not expected to significantly impact the result. Mitsotakis’ primary opponent is Alexis Tsipras of SYRIZA, who secured slightly over 20 percent of the vote in May. Tsipras is fighting for his political survival, with the resurgent social-democratic PASOK party vying to replace SYRIZA as the main opposition.

The number of parties reaching the 3% support threshold needed to enter Parliament will affect the extent of Mitsotakis’ victory. The performance of smaller parties will influence the outcome, as the higher the number of parties electing lawmakers, the greater the threshold for ND to secure a majority.

Among the smaller parties, Greek Solution (Elliniki Lysi) secured 4.4 percent in May, while the newcomer Niki (Victory) polls above the 3 percent threshold. Two far-left splinter groups from SYRIZA, Plefsi Eleftherias (Passage to Freedom) and MeRA25, are polling around 3 percent. Zoe Konstantopoulou, leader of Plefsi Eleftherias, previously served as the parliament speaker under SYRIZA, and Yanis Varoufakis, the secretary of MeRA25, was the finance minister during the 2015 bailout negotiations.