Warsaw, Poland – Western military powers, including the UK and NATO, have raised alarms about the depleting ammunition supplies available to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion. Adm Rob Bauer, Nato’s highest-ranking military official, stated at the Warsaw Security Forum that “the bottom of the barrel is now visible.” He emphasized the need for governments and defense manufacturers to accelerate ammunition production significantly.
Ukraine has been firing thousands of shells daily, with the majority coming from NATO countries. Adm. Bauer, who chairs Nato’s Military Committee, attributed this ammunition shortage to decades of underinvestment in NATO countries’ military capabilities, leading them to supply weapons to Ukraine without sufficient ammunition reserves.
“We need large volumes. The just-in-time, just-enough economy we built together in 30 years in our liberal economies is fine for a lot of things – but not the armed forces when there is a war ongoing,” Adm. Bauer stated.
UK Defense Minister James Heappey echoed these concerns, emphasizing that Western military stockpiles were running low. He urged NATO allies to fulfill their commitment to spend 2% of their national wealth on defense. He highlighted that this “just-in-time” model was insufficient for immediate readiness in times of conflict.
Heappey stressed the importance of continuous support for Ukraine, as any pause could embolden Russia. He also called for rebuilding ammunition stockpiles.
The issue of NATO members meeting their 2% defense spending commitment was also raised. Heappey suggested that this should be the minimum, not the maximum, level of defense spending within the alliance.
Swedish Defense Minister Pol Jonson underscored the need to prepare Europe’s defense industrial base to support Ukraine over the long term, emphasizing the importance of scale and volume, especially regarding artillery ammunition.
The UK defense ministry revealed that it has supplied more than 300,000 rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine since the invasion began in February 2022 and committed to providing tens of thousands more by year-end. Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department reported providing Ukraine with over two million NATO standard 155mm artillery rounds during the same period.
Concerns persist among NATO allies about the potential implications of a re-election of former President Donald Trump, as they fear a shift in U.S. military support for Ukraine. The challenge remains that despite efforts to increase production, Ukraine consumes ammunition at a faster rate than Western powers can replace it.
NATO and EU countries are working on various plans to address the ammunition shortage, including sharing expertise, joint contracts with defense manufacturers, and production subsidies. However, they continue to grapple with meeting the demand, while Russia appears better equipped to replenish its stockpiles during wartime.
